Date this Page Was Last Updated:
05/13/12 Your Personal Portfolio
is a personalized stock and mutual fund newsletter primarily designed for the
long term investor
The S&P 500 fell last week and is now up 7.4% for 2012. Earlier this year the market moved through a major resistance level into the 1300 -1400 range. It then fell back close to 1100 support, moved up above 1200 and has moved up through 1400 and back and testing the 1300 support level. It's above it's 50 day and it's 200 day moving averages. It appears lont term support is at the 1100 level. The market has shown strength as it has moved up to and through it's old high in the 1400 range. The next resistance level is at it's old of 1565 reached in 2007. With 5 quarters of GDP growth unemployment is now dropping, the percentage of unemployed is at 8.2%. The economy is now growing jobs in a reversal of downward trend that has lasted over a year. The price of oil fell below the 100 range and there is concern whether the growing demand means will slow economic growth. For the week, the S&P 500 finished at 1353. The yield of the 10-year U.S. fell to 1.84%. The recent yield for treasuries indicates investors have moderate confidence in the economy and may be moving to the stock market from bonds.
The outlook for the economy in 2012 has growth continuing. The Fed Chairman Bernanke suggests we were out of the recession at the end of 2009. The gains by the stock market in 2010 and the continuance of gains in the stock market in 2011 indicates investors anticipated the continued improvement of the economy. There is no longer a serious question about liquidity within the US economy but now there are concerns about liquidity in the European economies. The Fed has kept its Fed funds rate at almost zero and because the government has provided significant amounts of bailout money to the banking community the liquidity crisis has eased for US banks but the Greek debt crisis indicates all problems have not been solved. Also, there continues to be a problem that goes back to the excessive lending practices of the mortgage industry and the excessive leverage the investment banks used to acquire depreciating mortgage assets. However, investor confidence in the US investment environment has been restored. This is reflected in the rise of Price to Earnings ratios. Those ratios are still high by historical standards. If investors do not retain confidence in the system then PE's could once again drop.
For an analysis of how the Financial Crisis occurred click on the above Analysis of Financial Crisis bar
As of 13 May 2012
PIRRSPICKS stocks Up 7.3% S&P 500 Up 7.4%
2011 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks up 6.6%, S&P 500 up .2%
2010 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks up 14.4%, S&P 500 up 12.2%
2009 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks up 25.4%, S&P 500 up 23.4%
2008 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks down 30.4%, S&P 500 down 38.4%
2007 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks up 4.5%, S&P 500 up 3.5%
2006 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks Up 9.9% S&P 500 up 13.3%
2005 results: PIRRSPICKS stocks Up 7.1% S&P 500 up 3%
2004 Results: PIRRSPICKS Stocks up 17.2% (the S&P500 was up 9%).
PIRRSNL Select funds Up 5.8%.
PIRRSNL Select funds up 15.8% in 2009 (US Stock funds up 15%)
Select Funds up 34% in 2009 (US Stock funds up 32%)
Select Funds down 40.9% in 2008 (US Stock funds down 40.1%)
Select Funds up 7.7% in 2007 (US Stock funds up 6.6%)
Select Funds up 14.9% in 2006(US Stock funds up 13%).
Select Funds up 7.9% in 2005 (US Stock funds up 7.3%).
Select Funds up 11.7% in 2004 (US Stock funds up 11%).
Our Mission
To provide effective but low cost investment advice to the small, long term investor.
To increase our subscriber's wealth while limiting their risk.
About the Personal Investors Research and Reporting Service News Letter (PIRRSNL)
In business since 1993, the PIRRSNL has guided subscribers/investors to gains that have consistently beat the market averages. PIRRSNL produces Your Personal Portfolio a newsletter that is specifically tailored to each subscriber's stock and/or fund holdings.
Stock recommendations are based on analysis of a company's past earnings history, current earnings growth prospects and long term growth prospects. While dividends do not have to paid it is an important factor when considering a stock. If a dividend is paid there should be a history of dividend growth. Closely related to strong earnings and dividend growth is the relationship between earnings growth and Price to Earnings (PE) ratios. A wide variety of sources (e.g. Value Line, Standard & Poors, internet investment research sources (such as AOL's Personal Finance section and Yahoo's Finance section) are used to obtain data on stocks.
PIRRSNL's fund analysis primarily considers how a fund performs versus the other funds in its Group/Category (i.e. Growth, Aggressive Growth, Growth & Income, Income, Balanced, etc.). Recommended funds are selected because they have performed as well as or better than the average fund in their Group/Category. PIRRSNL uses Morningstar and internet investment research sources to develop its fund data base.
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